May 18, 2017 NWEA Lunch 11:45 am
Peter R. Rose, Ph. D
Objective Overview of Global Climate Change in 2016: A Geological Perspective
The relative contribution of Man's activities, as opposed to Nature's activities, to observed recent rises in global temperatures, is unresolved. In addition to the oft-noted (and increasing) inability of climate modeling to reproduce the documented recent past, two other major shortcomings of contemporary climate studies are that 1) they rest upon very short time spans, whereas climate change considered from a geological perspective encourages much less anxiety; and 2) they do not consider other pertinent disciplines, such as a) recorded history; b) geology, and c) astrophysics and cosmology. The latter three disciplines argue against Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (CAGW). Global sea-level rise relates to the current interglacial cycle, and is not accelerating. Reliable data on frequency and intensity of tornadoes, hurricanes and drought demonstrate no increase with rising temperatures, thus muting the reality of “extreme climate events” caused by rising atmospheric CO2.
Although it is true that increasing atmospheric CO2 does cause some atmospheric warming, growing evidence suggests that the effect is minor, and diminishes as CO2 concentration continues to rise. Indeed, rising atmospheric CO2 leads directly to increased agricultural productivity! It now seems probable that most observed 20th century global warming is the result of natural causes. If so, proposed voluntary economic initiatives by Western nations to limit CO2 emissions will constitute a serious and unnecessary economic wound, self-inflicted at the worst possible time. Still unexplained is the fact that no measurable atmospheric warming occurred for more than 18 years (1998-2015), while atmospheric CO2 concentration continued rising steadily. This casts doubt on the effectiveness of CO2 in causing significant atmospheric warming (“climate sensitivity”). Sunspot cycles suggest that we are about to enter an extended period of global cooling, and recent research results from CERN (Geneva) support the view that most warming relates to variations in solar irradiation, as well as the still poorly understood influence of clouds as amplifying or diminishing agents.
Recent and continuing unsavory revelations (“Climate Gates I and II”) have also cast doubt on the objectivity of the science underpinning CAGW, motivated by ideology and the search for research funding. Indeed, the greatest threat posed by the whole controversial CAGW campaign of the past 25 years may be the loss of public confidence in the integrity of Western Science.
U. S. prosperity correlates closely with energy use. We must assure a reliable supply of affordable energy if the Nation is to maintain an acceptable standard of living and continue as a world power. Our energy-supply concerns of 1990-2012 had four main components: 1] the false but widespread belief that the world was running out of oil, and that so-called “Peak Oil” was imminent; 2] the real global convergence of crude-oil demand (much by the “emerging economies”) upon crude-oil supply, now somewhat abated; 3] the perceived threat of CAGW; and 4] the mortgaging of U. S. assets for overseas crude oil, also now declining. We are now into a widespread “paradigm shift” that could – if we have the national will -- move us away from national “panic mode” to a focus on 1) adaptation to climate change; 2) deployment of new energy sources; and 3) increased energy efficiency. This should allow us to move into systematic long-term National energy planning, which will require bipartisan political support, stable economic policy and a sound factual basis.
Dr. Pete Rose (Ph. D., Geology, University of Texas, Austin) has been a professional geologist for 55 years, specializing in Petroleum Geology, E&P Risk Analysis, and Mineral Economics. Before going on his own in 1980 as an independent prospector and consultant, he worked for Shell Oil Company, the United States Geological Survey, and Energy Reserves Group, Inc, a small-cap Independent.
After 10 years as an internationally-recognized authority on economic risking of exploration drilling ventures, he founded Rose & Associates, LLP, in 1998. Pete retired in 2005; the firm continues as the global standard among consulting companies in that field, providing instruction, software and consulting services on an international scale.
Pete wrote the definitive geological monograph on the Edwards Limestone of Texas (Rose, 1972), and has continued related investigations to the present time. His 2001 book, Risk Analysis and Management of Petroleum Exploration Ventures, now in its 7th printing, is considered by many as the “Bible” on that topic, and has been translated into Chinese, Japanese, and Russian. He has authored or co-authored more than 80 published articles on an extremely wide variety of geological topics (Micropaleontology to Petroleum Economics). He was a Fellow of the Geological Society of America, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and Geological Society of London.
In 2005 he was the 89th President of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists, an international organization that is the largest professional geological society in the world (>37,000 members).
In 2006-07 he was a member of the National Petroleum Council, involved with their summary of the global energy situation, Facing the Hard Truths about Energy, and was also deeply involved in successful efforts to encourage the U. S. Securities and Exchange Commission to modernize its rules governing estimation and disclosure of oil and gas reserves, thus facilitating the investment component of the “shale revolution” in the U. S.
In 2013, the Geological Society of London awarded Peter R. Rose its prestigious Petroleum Group Medal for lifetime contributions to Petroleum Geology, the first American to be so recognized, and in 2014 the American Association of Petroleum Geologists honored him with its Halbouty Outstanding Leadership Award.
Pete is a 5th-generation Texan. He and his wife Alice have 5 children and 8 grandchildren, and divide their time between Austin and their El Segundo Ranch near Telegraph, Texas. In retirement, he took up a new career as a historian: in September 2012, Texas Tech University Press published his book, The Reckoning: the Triumph of Order on the Texas Outlaw Frontier, about the coming of Order and Law to the western Hill Country and Edwards Plateau regions of Texas (1873-1883). He is also well known for field trips he leads with Dr. Charles Woodruff into the Texas Hill Country that combine the topics of Geology, Wineries, and Frontier History.
CALL FOR ABSTRACTS
The North West Energy Association (NWEA) will be sponsoring a session during the Geological Society of America (GSA) Annual Meeting this fall in Seattle. The dates of the meeting are October 22-25, 2017.
The Session is titled Pacific Northwest Energy: Resources, Opportunities and Adaptability in a Changing Energy Environment. The session requires 12 talks with 15 minutes per talk. We suggest a variety of Pacific North West energy subjects such as, but not limited to oil, hydroelectric, natural gas, geothermal, coal, solar, coal bed methane, wind, environmental affects, tidal, renewables or seismic infrastructure hazards.
SUBMIT ABSTRACTS ONLINE AT
Deadline August 1, 2017
For Questions Contact Paul Oldaker: firstname.lastname@example.org
Northwest Energy Association